XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Weekly Setup (May 3)
Gold closes the week at $4,614 (-1.8%). Weekly/Monthly analysis, Wyckoff, macro correlations and outlook for the week of 4-8 May 2026. CPI and Core PCE as catalysts.
Week in Review (27 Apr-1 May)
Higher timeframes analysis
Weekly Wyckoff read
Current phase: TRANSITION — Ranging
Rango entre $3,998 y $5,602. Esperar definicion de fase.
| Event | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| range_high | $5,602 | |
| range_low | $3,998 |
Key levels for the week of 4-8 May 2026
Resistance
| Level | Type | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,619 | BSL/Resistance | Immediate | +$5 |
| $4,647 | BSL/Resistance | Medium | +$33 |
| $4,700 | BSL/Resistance | Strong | +$86 |
| $4,730 | BSL/Resistance | Strong | +$116 |
Support
| Level | Type | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,600 | SSL/Support | Immediate | -$14 |
| $4,540 | SSL/Support | Medium | -$74 |
| $4,500 | SSL/Support | Strong | -$114 |
| $4,450 | SSL/Support | Strong | -$164 |
Expected range: $4,600 - $4,730
3 Scenarios for the week of 4-8 May 2026
Macro events this week
| Date | Time (Chile) | Event | Impact | Gold effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 14:00 CL | ISM Manufacturing PMI | MEDIUM | Debil = expectativa dovish = Gold sube. |
| 2026-05-06 | 12:15 CL | ADP Employment Change | MEDIUM | Anticipa NFP (impreciso). |
| 2026-05-06 | 14:00 CL | ISM Services PMI | MEDIUM | 70% del PIB USA. |
| 2026-05-06 | 18:00 CL | FOMC Interest Rate Decision | VERY HIGH | Sube tasa = Gold baja. Baja tasa = Gold sube. |
| 2026-05-07 | 12:30 CL | Initial Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | Alto = Gold sube. Bajo = Gold baja. |
Weekly scorecard
| Criterion | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | Bullish |
| Score | 5/10 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Minimum R:R | 1:1.5 |
| Max risk per trade | 1% |
| Entries this week | Premium (see plans) |
| Recommended sessions | London KZ, NY KZ |
| Day to avoid | Monday |
| Key day | 2026-05-06 (FOMC Interest Rate Decision) |
Numbers recap
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly close | $4,614 |
| Weekly low | $4,510 |
| Weekly high | $4,730 |
| Weekly range | $220 |
| Daily ATR | $0 (NORMAL) |
| Wyckoff | transition Ranging |
| Bias | Bullish (score 5/10) |
| Resistance | $4,619, $4,647, $4,700, $4,730 |
| Support | $4,600, $4,540, $4,500, $4,450 |
| Key event | FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2026-05-06) |
| Recommended risk | 1% per trade |
| Entries | Premium only (see plans) |
Conclusion
Gold closed the week at $4,614 (-1.8%). Weekly bias: Bullish (score 5/10). Volatility regime: NORMAL. The week of 4-8 May 2026 will be shaped by FOMC Interest Rate Decision — the key event that can define direction.
We’ll publish daily analyses during the week. Next analysis: Pre-Asia Monday.
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Wyckoff Accumulation | Phase where institutions buy gradually. Includes: SC, AR, ST, SOS, LPS. |
| Selling Climax (SC) | Peak-selling point with extreme volume. Smart money buys the retail capitulation. |
| Sign of Strength (SOS) | Strong rally confirming institutional demand. |
| Last Point of Support (LPS) | Final pullback before Markup. Best long entry. |
| CHoCH | Change of Character. First structural break in the opposite direction. |
| BOS | Break of Structure. Confirms trend continuation. |
| FVG | Fair Value Gap. Price imbalance that tends to get filled. |
| BSL / SSL | Buy-Side / Sell-Side Liquidity. Stops stacked above/below. |
| ATR | Average True Range. Measures volatility. Higher ATR = wider SLs. |
| NFP | Non-Farm Payrolls. US employment report. Moves Gold significantly. |
| DXY | Dollar Index. Inverse correlation with Gold. |
Pre-session reports with entry setups
Before every session you get the likely setups with exact entry, SL and TP, correlations with DXY, Oil and Yields, macro news of the day, and a liquidity map. You reach the market with a plan.
Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).