XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-London Setup (May 11)

In summary

Gold fell 0.9% and closed at $4,672. It was a moderately active day — price swung $76 between its low ($4,648) and high ($4,724).

The trend is bearish (high conviction, score -4). Sellers are in control. If resistance isn’t reclaimed, more downside is likely.

Why? bond yields are rising (bad for gold).

Next important event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2026-05-13 09:30 Chile). Volatility likely.

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Technical analysis

Gold closed Monday May 11 at $4,672 (fell 0.92%). 4H structure: BEARISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $76 ($4,648 - $4,724). Score: -4 Bearish.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $13 from $4,692 to $4,679. Range of $57 with low at $4,648. The 05:00 UTC candle was the largest ($33 range).

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Quiet session. Gold moved only $16 ($4,664-$4,680). No relevant moves.

Correlations

DXY neutral (+0.13%) — no significant direct pressure.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,724, $4,706, $4,700 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,648, $4,650, $4,664

Price near SSL $4,648. MM may sweep stops below and bounce. Bearish trap likely.

Trade setups

2 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. One trade only; the favorite is marked. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🔴 SHORT — Pullback to resistance ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,750 · SL: $4,780 · TP1: $4,648 · R:R 1:3.4 · Risk: 1%

Trigger: Bearish rejection at $4,750

Confirmations (all required):

• Price rallies to zone $4,750±5 (do not short into the drop)
• Bearish CHoCH on 5m: lower low breaks the last swing low
• 5m rejection candle: upper wick >60% of total range (pin bar or shooting star)
• Bearish displacement: red candle with body >70%, close in lower third
• Resistance $4,750 NOT broken with a 5m close above

Invalid if:

• 5m close above $4,780 → setup dead
• 1H close above $4,750 → resistance broken, cancel short
• If 2 hours pass with no trigger → expired

B. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,648 · SL: $4,678 · TP1: $4,500 · R:R 1:4.9 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,648

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,648 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,648±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,648 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (break candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,648 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,648 → fake breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,678 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Retest of resistance and rejection (50%): Gold rallies to nearest resistance and gets rejected. Sellers defend resistance. Bearish continuation toward support zone.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-nearest resistance without direction. Wait for a catalyst.

Scenario 3 — Upside breakout (20%): Gold breaks nearest resistance with a 1H close above. Bias changes. Cancel shorts.

What to do

2 active setups — see Trade setups section above for full entries, stops, targets and triggers. Favorite: SHORT Pullback to resistance at $4,750.

Key resistance: $4,680. Rejection = bearish continuation. Break on a 1H close = cancel shorts.

Critical event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) — 2026-05-13 09:30 Chile. Reduce exposure before the release.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

What the team says

Our 6 analysts reviewed this report and all raised concerns. No consensus — it’s a tricky day.

The full debate — with the observations of our Structure & Wyckoff, Risk & Management, Macro & Fundamentals, Pure Technical Analysis, Timing & Sessions and Contrarian analysts — is available to premium subscribers.

Tu decides. Nosotros mostramos los datos y los desacuerdos. La decision final siempre es tuya.