XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-NY Setup (May 11)

In summary

Gold fell 0.3% and closed at $4,700. It was a moderately active day — price swung $53 between its low ($4,648) and high ($4,701).

The market is undecided (score +2). Price is oscillating in a range with no clear direction. Better to wait for definition.

Why? bond yields are rising (bad for gold); silver climbed 4.2% (when silver rallies hard, gold tends to follow).

Next important event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2026-05-13 09:30 Chile). Volatility likely.

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Technical analysis

Gold closed Monday May 11 at $4,700 (fell 0.34%). 4H structure: ACCUMULATION. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $53 ($4,648 - $4,701). Score: +2 Neutral.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $13 from $4,692 to $4,679. Range of $53 with low at $4,648. The 05:00 UTC candle was the largest ($33 range).

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold dropped $4 (0.1%), from $4,679 to $4,675. Moderate range of $30.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Gold rose $25 (0.5%), from $4,675 to $4,700. Moderate range of $34.

Correlations

DXY neutral (+0.12%) — no significant direct pressure.

Silver +4.2% — VERY POSITIVE. The 0.95+ correlation between Gold and Silver is the highest across all assets. When Silver leads with this magnitude, Gold follows. Historically, Silver moves first at inflection points.

Yields rising (+0.69%) — pressure on Gold. Higher bond yields compete directly with gold.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,701, $4,700 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,648, $4,650, $4,651

Price near BSL $4,706. MM may sweep stops above and continue up. Second touch usually breaks.

Trade setups

3 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. One trade only; the favorite is marked. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,671 · SL: $4,648 · TP1: $4,750 · R:R 1:3.4 · Risk: 0.75-1%

Trigger: Bullish 5m CHoCH in zone $4,671±5

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to zone $4,671±5 (do not enter earlier)
• Bullish CHoCH on 5m: higher high breaks the last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• Zone $4,671 NOT broken with a 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,648 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,671 without reclaim → cancel
• If 2 hours pass with no trigger → expired (wait for a new analysis)

B. 🔴 SHORT — Pullback to resistance

Entry: $4,750 · SL: $4,780 · TP1: $4,671 · R:R 1:2.6 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Bearish rejection at $4,750

Confirmations (all required):

• Price rallies to zone $4,750±5 (do not short into the drop)
• Bearish CHoCH on 5m: lower low breaks the last swing low
• 5m rejection candle: upper wick >60% of total range (pin bar or shooting star)
• Bearish displacement: red candle with body >70%, close in lower third
• Resistance $4,750 NOT broken with a 5m close above

Invalid if:

• 5m close above $4,780 → setup dead
• 1H close above $4,750 → resistance broken, cancel short
• If 2 hours pass with no trigger → expired

Counter-trend setup. Confidence MEDIA. Contratendencia en nivel débil — solo con confirmación extra

C. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,671 · SL: $4,701 · TP1: $4,648 · R:R 1:0.8 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,671

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,671 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,671±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,671 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (break candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,671 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,671 → fake breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,701 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Counter-trend setup. Confidence MEDIA. Contratendencia en nivel débil — solo con confirmación extra

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Upside breakout (40%): Gold breaks nearest resistance and continues. Bias flips bullish.

Scenario 2 — Range (40%): Gold oscillates between support zone and nearest resistance. Trade the extremes.

Scenario 3 — Downside break (20%): Gold loses support zone. Bearish continuation.

What to do

3 active setups — see Trade setups section above for full entries, stops, targets and triggers. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support at $4,671.

The market is in a range between $4,671 and $4,706. Trade the extremes with confirmation. Wait for a clean breakout to define bias.

Critical event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) — 2026-05-13 09:30 Chile. Reduce exposure before the release.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

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Of 8 analysts, 1 agree and 7 have observations. There’s internal debate on this read.

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