XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis — June 11, 2026 | Pre-London Killzone

In summary

Gold rose 0.9% and closed at $4,107. It was a very active day — price moved $95 between its low ($4,024) and high ($4,118).

The market is indecisive (score +2). Price is oscillating in a range with no clear direction. Better to wait for definition.

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Technical analysis

Gold closed on Thursday, June 11 at $4,107 (up 0.85%). 4H structure: ACCUMULATION. Wyckoff ranging. Daily range: $95 ($4,024 - $4,118). Score: +2 Neutral.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Strong move to the upside. Gold rose $47 from $4,047 to $4,094. Range of $82 with high at $4,118. The 01:00 UTC candle was the largest ($52 range).

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $12 (0.3%), from $4,094 to $4,107. Moderate range of $21.

Correlations

DXY neutral (-0.06%) — no significant direct pressure.

Market Maker

BSL (short stops above): $4,118, $4,113, $4,111 SSL (long stops below): $4,024, $4,036, $4,052

Price near BSL $4,118. The MM could sweep stops above and continue higher. The second touch typically breaks.

Trade setups

2 active setups. Entries, stops, and targets below — all public. One trade; the favorite is marked. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Resistance breakout ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,118 · SL: $4,100 · TP1: $4,186 · R:R 1:3.8 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,118

Confirmations (all mandatory):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,118 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,118±5 and bounces (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,118 and close stays above
• Breakout volume > average (breakout candle must not be a doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT return below $4,118 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,118 → fake breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,100 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakout → expired, do not chase

B. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,100 · SL: $4,130 · TP1: $4,050 · R:R 1:1.7 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,100

Confirmations (all mandatory):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,100 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,100±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,100 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (break candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,100 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,100 → fake breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,130 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Counter-trend setup. Confidence LOW. Counter-trend at weak level — only with extra confirmation

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Upside breakout (40%): Gold breaks the nearest resistance and continues. Bias turns bullish.

Scenario 2 — Range (40%): Gold oscillates between support and nearest resistance zone. Trade the extremes.

Scenario 3 — Downside breakout (20%): Gold breaks below support zone. Bearish continuation.

What to do

2 active setups — check the Trade Setups section above for complete entries, stops, targets, and triggers. Favorite: LONG Resistance breakout at $4,118.

The market is in a range between $4,100 and $4,118. Trade the extremes with confirmation. Wait for a clean breakout to define the bias.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.