Economic Calendar
Indicators that move Gold. Next week's macro events and the permanent economic data every XAU/USD trader should know.
Week of March 24 - 28, 2026
Macro events, predictions and expected impact on Gold
The forecast (94.5) already indicates significant deterioration vs the previous reading (98.3). If the data comes in worse than expected (below 93), it confirms the consumer is scared — bullish for Gold as it anticipates slowdown and a possible change in Fed tone. If it comes in better (>96), it reinforces the resilient economy narrative — USD rises, Gold drops.
Gold Impact: Data < 93 → Gold rises $20-40. Data > 96 → Gold drops $15-30.
Limited impact on Gold. Housing market data that rarely moves XAU/USD more than $10. Only relevant at extremes (>720K or <620K). Keep focus on price action and technical structure.
Gold Impact: Minimal impact. Do not trade based on this data.
Third and final GDP Q4 reading. The market has already priced in previous readings (2.3%), so a confirmation should not move much. The surprise would be an upward revision (>2.5%), which would strengthen USD and pressure Gold. A downward revision (<2.0%) would ease hawkish expectations. Note: this data looks backward — the market wants to know what is happening now, not in Q4.
Gold Impact: GDP > 2.5% → Gold drops $20-40. GDP < 2.0% → Gold rises $20-30. In line → no effect.
Weekly unemployment data. In the current context, any sign of labor market weakening is bullish for Gold (anticipates Fed cuts). Claims > 240K would be a bullish surprise for Gold. Claims < 210K reinforces the strong economy narrative = hawkish Fed = Gold drops.
Gold Impact: Claims > 240K → Gold rises $15-30. Claims < 210K → Gold drops $10-20.
EVENT OF THE WEEK. PCE Core is the Fed's preferred inflation measure. After the Middle East oil shock, the market expects inflationary pressure. If PCE > 0.4%: confirms inflation is rising again → Fed holds or raises rates → USD spikes → Gold collapses toward $4,319-$4,200. If PCE < 0.3%: suggests inflation hasn't spread yet → relief → short squeeze in Gold toward $4,554-$4,703. In line (0.3%): limited reaction, market stays in risk-off mode. RECOMMENDATION: Do not trade before the release. Wait for initial spike (usually fake), look for liquidity sweep post-data, and enter after 10:00.
Gold Impact: PCE > 0.4% → Gold drops $80-150 toward $4,319. PCE < 0.3% → Gold rises $60-120 toward $4,554+.
Measures orders for long-lasting manufactured goods. A sharp decline (forecast -1.0% vs previous 3.2%) signals weakening business investment. If worse than expected (<-2.0%), it adds to the slowdown narrative — bullish for Gold. If better than expected (>0%), it supports the resilient economy view — bearish for Gold. Read alongside PCE for the full picture.
Gold Impact: Data < -2.0% → Gold rises $10-20. Data > 0% → Gold drops $10-15. Secondary to PCE.
Complements PCE. If income rises strongly (>0.6%) it means spending capacity exists → inflation may persist → bearish for Gold. The forecast of 0.4% (vs 0.9% previous) already anticipates deceleration. Secondary data that should be read alongside PCE.
Gold Impact: Read alongside PCE. Do not trade this data in isolation.
Consumer sentiment at lows. The forecast of 57.9 is very low and confirms post-oil-shock pessimism. Lower impact because it releases after Thursday's PCE (the market has already moved). Only relevant at extremes (<55 or >62).
Gold Impact: Data < 55 → Gold rises $10-20 (extreme fear). Limited impact if PCE already moved the market.
Disclaimer: Predictions and speculations are educational opinions based on technical and fundamental analysis. They do not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR).
Market Hours and Killzones
Trading sessions and operational windows for XAU/USD
| Session | UTC Time | Your local time | Type | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Session | 21:00 - 06:00 | Session | Forex market open. Low liquidity. Wide spreads on Gold. | |
| Tokyo Session | 00:00 - 09:00 | Session | Range and consolidation. Defines the Asian Range that London will sweep. | |
| Asian Killzone (ICT) | 00:00 - 04:00 | Killzone | ICT Asian range. Liquidity forms (equal H/L) that will be swept in London. | |
| London Session (LSE) | 08:00 - 16:30 | Session | Highest volume session. 35% of global forex volume. | |
| London Killzone (ICT) | 07:00 - 10:00 | Killzone | Main breakout of the day. Asian Range sweep. BEST WINDOW to trade. | |
| NY Session (NYSE) | 13:30 - 22:00 | Session | Second largest session. Overlap with London (13:30-16:30 UTC) = peak volatility. | |
| NY Killzone (ICT) | 12:00 - 15:00 | Killzone | Second impulse of the day. Macro data (NFP, CPI, PCE) releases at 12:30 UTC. | |
| London Close KZ (ICT) | 15:00 - 17:00 | Danger | Frequent manipulation and reversals. London institutional position closing. | |
| NY PM | 17:00 - 22:00 | Low activity | Decreasing volume. Only hold positions, do not open new ones. |
Recommendation: Trade exclusively during London Killzone and NY Killzone. 80% of significant Gold movements occur during these windows. Local times are calculated automatically based on your timezone.
Macro Indicators that Move Gold
These are the permanent economic data points every XAU/USD trader should have on their radar. Each one can generate 200+ pip movements in Gold.
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls)
HighFirst Friday of each month. Measures U.S. job creation. One of the highest-impact data points for Gold and USD.
Frequency: MonthlyCPI (Consumer Price Index)
HighMeasures consumer inflation. A high CPI strengthens USD and pressures Gold lower (in theory). Key data for monetary policy.
Frequency: MonthlyFOMC (Federal Reserve)
HighFed interest rate decision and press conference. Generates the highest volatility of the month in Gold and forex.
Frequency: 8 times per yearPCE Core
HighThe Fed's favorite indicator for measuring inflation. Similar to CPI but with different methodology. Highly relevant for Gold.
Frequency: MonthlyGDP (Gross Domestic Product)
MediumMeasures economic growth. A strong GDP tends to strengthen USD. Published in 3 readings: advance, preliminary, final.
Frequency: QuarterlyJobless Claims
MediumWeekly unemployment claims. High-frequency data that measures labor market health in real time.
Frequency: WeeklyISM Manufacturing / Services
MediumEconomic activity indices for manufacturing and services. Above 50 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction.
Frequency: MonthlyConsumer Confidence
MediumMeasures consumer optimism about the economy. Can generate moderate movements in Gold and USD.
Frequency: Monthly