XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis — September 25, 2026 | Pre-NY Killzone

Summary

Gold rose 0.6% and closed at $4,298. It was a moderately active day — price moved $59 between its low ($4,256) and high ($4,316).

The trend is bullish (high conviction, score +5). Institutions are buying on pullbacks. If price holds above key support, more upside is likely in the coming sessions.

Why? Bond yields are falling (good for gold — gold competes with bonds); silver rose 2.8% (when silver rallies hard, gold tends to follow).

Watch Friday: the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge publishes (2026-09-25 09:30 Chile). A low number drives gold higher; a high one can tank it. It’s the week’s most important data.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed Friday September 25 at $4,298 (up 0.56%). 4H structure: ACCUMULATION. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $59 ($4,256 - $4,316). Score: +5 Bullish.

The Day in Detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold rose $11 (0.3%), from $4,265 to $4,276. Moderate range of $40.

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $27 (0.6%), from $4,276 to $4,303. Moderate range of $45.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Quiet session. Gold moved only $13 ($4,297-$4,309). No relevant moves.

Correlations

DXY falling (-0.27%) — dollar weakness favors Gold. Active inverse correlation. While DXY keeps weakening, Gold has tailwinds.

Silver +2.8% — positive. Precious metals move in sync.

Yields falling (-0.58%) — positive for Gold. Lower bond yields favor non-yielding assets like gold.

Market Maker

BSL (short stops above): $4,316, $4,312, $4,309 SSL (long stops below): $4,256, $4,263, $4,266

Price near BSL $4,303. MM could sweep stops above and continue higher. Second touch usually breaks.

Trade Setups

2 active setups. Entries, stops, and targets below — all public. One trade; the favorite is marked. Without trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Resistance Breakout ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,303 · SL: $4,289 · TP1: $4,400 · R:R 1:6.9 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,303

Confirmations (all mandatory):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,303 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,303±5 and bounces (1-3 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,303 and close holds above
• Breakout volume > average (breakout candle must not be doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT return below $4,303 with a 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,303 → false breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,289 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles after breakout → expired, don’t chase

B. 🔴 SHORT — Support Breakdown

Entry: $4,289 · SL: $4,319 · TP1: $4,265 · R:R 1:0.8 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,289

Confirmations (all mandatory):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,289 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,289±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,289 and close holds below
• Breakdown volume > average (break candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,289 with a 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,289 → false breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,319 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles after breakdown → expired, don’t chase

Counter-trend setup. MEDIUM confidence. Counter-trend at weak level — only with extra confirmation

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to the support zone-$4,278 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward the nearest resistance.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold consolidates between support zone-nearest resistance with no clear direction. Volume drops.

Scenario 3 — Support breakdown (20%): Gold breaks support zone with a 1H close below. Move back toward $4,265. Cancel longs.

What to Do

2 active setups — check the Trade Setups section above for full entries, stops, objectives, and triggers. Favorite: LONG Resistance Breakout at $4,303.

Key support: $4,289. If it holds, continuation up. If it breaks on a 1H close, cancel longs.

Critical event: Core PCE Price Index (Aug data) — 2026-09-25 09:30 Chile. Reduce exposure before release.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.