XAU/USD Pre-Asia Analysis March 26 – The $160 Squeeze Confirmed the Floor: What's Next?
XAUUSD forecast: gold price exploded from $4,399 to $4,559 in London (+$160 in 4 hours). Higher lows completed, Wyckoff confirmed, Silver +5.8%. Post-squeeze analysis with new levels and scenarios for Asia.
Summary: the squeeze that confirmed everything
Gold trades at $4,541 after the most violent squeeze since the crash. In London’s session today Wednesday March 25, the price exploded from $4,399 to $4,559 — a move of $160 in 4 hours.
| Moment | Price | Movement |
|---|---|---|
| Asia close (06:00) | $4,399 | Compression: range $54 |
| London 07:00 | $4,475 | +$76 in 1 hour — BREAKOUT |
| London 09:00 | $4,482 | Continuation |
| London 10:00 | $4,545 | +$63 monstrous candle |
| London 11:00 | $4,559 high | +$160 from Asia |
This move confirms three things:
- The higher lows were real accumulation ($4,105 → $4,310 → $4,355 → $4,375)
- The Wyckoff pattern completed — the Sign of Strength (SOS) arrived
- $4,449 was the gateway — once broken, shorts liquidated in cascade
What happened: anatomy of the squeeze
The compression (48 hours prior)
The range kept tightening session after session: $405 → $139 → $80 → $54. More and more energy accumulated, higher lows getting progressively higher. It was a spring.
The trigger (07:00 UTC)
London opened and the price broke $4,435 (Asia high) in minutes. Then swept $4,449 — the resistance that had rejected price 2 times. The accumulated short stops above $4,449 triggered and fed the rally.
The cascade (07:00-11:00 UTC)
Once the stops were broken, there was no resistance until $4,554 (last week’s ex-Daily OB). The 10:00 candle was the largest: $74 range in 1 hour ($4,475 → $4,549). Pure short liquidation.
DXY confirmed
The dollar weakened from 99.42 to 99.13 — the first significant drop in days. Gold and DXY finally aligned in the classic inverse correlation.
Silver led
Silver rose +5.80% to $73.06. When Silver leads with that strength, Gold follows. The 0.95 correlation between both assets remains intact.
Updated structure (SMC)
| Timeframe | Bias | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | Bearish → Neutral | Today’s candle is the first wide-range bullish candle since the crash. But there’s still no CHoCH on Daily (learn to use CHoCH as an entry trigger in our practical guide) |
| 4H | BULLISH | CHoCH confirmed. 4H candle from $4,399 to $4,545 = institutional displacement |
| 1H | Bullish | HH/HL confirmed. Each intraday pullback was bought |
| 15m | Bullish | Clean impulse structure |
Critical change: The 4H switched from bearish to bullish for the first time since the March 23 crash. This is the timeframe that defines the medium-term trend.
Wyckoff completed
Phase 1: Selling Climax → $4,105 (23 Mar) ✅
Phase 2: Automatic Rally → $4,510 (23 Mar) ✅
Phase 3: Secondary Test → $4,310 (24 Mar) ✅
Phase 4: Higher Low → $4,355 (25 Mar) ✅
Phase 5: Higher Low 2 → $4,375 (25 Mar) ✅
Phase 6: Sign of Strength → $4,559 (25 Mar) ✅ ← TODAY
Phase 7: Last Point of Support → Pending (pullback expected)
Phase 8: Markup → Target: $4,600-$4,700The Wyckoff accumulation pattern confirmed with today’s SOS. The next phase is a pullback (Last Point of Support) that should NOT break $4,449. If it holds, the Markup phase takes the price to $4,600-$4,700.
Post-squeeze liquidity map
======================================================================
XAU/USD LIQUIDITY MAP — Pre-Asia 26 Mar
======================================================================
--- $4,700 --- [BSL](/en/glossary/liquidity-sweep) | Wyckoff Markup target | Prob: LOW (this week)
--- $4,650 --- BSL | 4H [FVG](/en/glossary/fair-value-gap) from crash (unfilled gap) | Prob: MEDIUM
If momentum continues tomorrow.
--- $4,600 --- BSL | Psychological resistance | Prob: MEDIUM-HIGH
First real target if squeeze continues.
--- $4,559 --- BSL | TODAY'S HIGH | Prob. sweep: HIGH
Today's long stops just above.
Post-sweep: Continuation to $4,600.
--- $4,554 --- Ex-Daily [OB](/en/glossary/order-block) — supply zone
Tested today and held. Now a pivot.
=== $4,541 === CURRENT PRICE
--- $4,497 --- Intermediate support (ex-weekly resistance)
First pullback target. Should hold.
--- $4,449 --- KEY SUPPORT (ex-breakout) <<<
*** LINE IN THE SAND ***
If this level holds as support = Markup.
If lost = bullish trap, we return to $4,400.
--- $4,400 --- Psychological support
--- $4,375 --- Last higher low
--- $4,310 --- Monday sweep
======================================================================Post-squeeze correlations
| Asset | Price | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.13 | +0.18% (declining) | POSITIVE — weakening |
| US10Y | 4.39% | +1.34% | Neutral — stable |
| VIX | 26.95 | +3.06% | Neutral |
| Silver | $73.06 | +5.80% | VERY POSITIVE — leading |
| Oil | $88.47 | +0.39% | Neutral |
Most important change: DXY fell from 99.42 to 99.13. Silver exploded +5.80%. Both confirm Gold’s move. If DXY continues weakening tomorrow, Gold can continue.
3 scenarios for Asia and Thursday
Scenario A — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%)
Gold pulls back to $4,497-$4,520 in Asia (normal after a $160 rally). Thursday resumes higher and attacks $4,600. The pullback is aggressively bought.
Confirmation: Pullback that holds above $4,497. Buy candles in Asia.
Scenario B — Consolidation in high range (30%)
Gold stays between $4,520-$4,559 waiting for Friday’s PCE. Without new catalyst, the market digests the move. Volume drops.
Confirmation: Narrow range on 1H. ATR declining.
Scenario C — Bullish trap, return below $4,449 (20%)
The squeeze was only short covering, not real buying. Gold loses $4,497 and then $4,449. If 1H closes below $4,449 = the breakout failed. Less likely given Silver +5.8% and DXY declining.
Confirmation: Loss of $4,497 with bearish displacement. DXY bouncing higher.
Calendar
| Day | UTC Time | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 26 | 12:30 | Jobless Claims + GDP Final | Medium |
| Fri 27 | 12:30 | Core PCE | HIGH |
Tomorrow’s GDP and Jobless Claims can move 30-50 pips. Friday’s PCE remains the week-defining event. If PCE comes in low → Gold rises to $4,700+. If high → test of $4,449 as support.
Lesson: compression → breakout
What we saw today is the most predictable pattern in trading:
- Higher lows = buyers accumulating
- Range compressing = energy stored
- Breakout = explosive release
The compression lasted 3 sessions ($4,375-$4,435) and the breakout was $160 — three times the compressed range. This is typical: the breakout is usually 2-4x the compression range.
We identified it in real-time: “The breakout is inevitable — and usually violent.” Today it confirmed.
Next analysis: Thursday 26 March pre-PCE or post-macro data.
Disclaimer: This analysis is educational and reflects our market opinion. It is not financial advice. Trading carries risk of capital loss. Trade only with money you can afford to lose.
Informes pre-sesión con setups de entrada
Antes de cada sesión recibes los setups probables con entry, SL y TP exactos, correlaciones con DXY, Oil y Yields, noticias macro del día, y mapa de liquidez. Llegas al mercado con un plan.
Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).