XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis — 25 May 2026 | Pre-London Killzone

In summary

Gold climbed 1.1% and closed at $4,561. It was a moderately active day — price swung $76 between its low ($4,504) and high ($4,580).

The market is undecided (score -1). Price is oscillating in a range with no clear direction. Better to wait for definition.

Why? the dollar is weakening (positive for gold).

Next important event: FOMC Meeting Minutes (2026-05-27 15:00 Chile). Volatility likely.

Technical analysis

Gold closed Monday May 25 at $4,561 (climbed 1.14%). 4H structure: BEARISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $76 ($4,504 - $4,580). Score: -1 Neutral.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold dropped $4 (0.1%), from $4,567 to $4,563. Moderate range of $29. Typical Asia compression — energy built up for London.

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Quiet session. Gold moved only $13 ($4,552-$4,565). No relevant moves.

Correlations

DXY falling (-0.30%) — dollar weakness favors Gold. Inverse correlation active. As long as DXY keeps weakening, Gold has a tailwind.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,580, $4,577, $4,571 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,504, $4,549, $4,551

Price near SSL $4,536. MM may sweep stops below and bounce. Bearish trap likely.

Trade setups

3 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. One trade only; the favorite is marked. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,536 · SL: $4,510 · TP1: $4,571 · R:R 1:1.3 · Risk: 0.75-1%

Trigger: Bullish 5m CHoCH in zone $4,536±5

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to zone $4,536±5 (do not enter earlier)
• Bullish CHoCH on 5m: higher high breaks the last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• Zone $4,536 NOT broken with a 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,510 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,536 without reclaim → cancel
• If 2 hours pass with no trigger → expired (wait for a new analysis)

B. 🟢 LONG — Resistance breakout

Entry: $4,571 · SL: $4,536 · TP1: $4,600 · R:R 1:0.8 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,571

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,571 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,571±5 and bounces (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,571 and close stays above
• Breakout volume > average (breakout candle must not be a doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT return below $4,571 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,571 → fake breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,536 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakout → expired, do not chase

C. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,536 · SL: $4,566 · TP1: $4,510 · R:R 1:0.9 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,536

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,536 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,536±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,536 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (break candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,536 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,536 → fake breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,566 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Upside breakout (40%): Gold breaks nearest resistance and continues. Bias flips bullish.

Scenario 2 — Range (40%): Gold oscillates between support zone and nearest resistance. Trade the extremes.

Scenario 3 — Downside break (20%): Gold loses support zone. Bearish continuation.

What to do

3 active setups — see Trade setups section above for full entries, stops, targets and triggers. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support at $4,536.

The market is in a range between $4,536 and $4,571. Trade the extremes with confirmation. Wait for a clean breakout to define bias.

Critical event: FOMC Meeting Minutes — 2026-05-27 15:00 Chile. Reduce exposure before the release.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

What the team says

Of 8 analysts, 2 agree and 6 have observations. There’s internal debate on this read.

Tu decides. Nosotros mostramos los datos y los desacuerdos. La decision final siempre es tuya.