XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-Asia Setup (May 11)
Key levels: R $4,774 / S $4,738. Bullish bias, score +5. Pre-Asia (May 11) — 1 active setup. Silver +9% rallies gold. Watch breakout above $4,774 now.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the XAU/USD bias for the Pre-Asia session today?
XAU/USD shows a bullish bias with score +5/10. Wyckoff phase is transition. Trade with the structural direction. Current price sits at $4,763.
What are the key resistance and support levels for XAU/USD today?
Immediate resistance sits at $4,774. Key support is $4,738. Higher resistance extends toward $4,900. Deeper liquidity pool near $4,648. Watch for reaction at each level for SMC/ICT confirmations.
What is the main XAU/USD long setup for the Pre-Asia killzone?
Main setup: LONG — Pullback to support. Entry $4,706, SL $4,681, TP1 $4,744 (1:1.5). Trigger: Bullish 5m CHoCH in zone $4,706±5. Personalized sizing by account size is in the premium plan.
Where is the invalidation level for today's XAU/USD bias?
The bullish bias invalidates on a clean 1H close above $4,900 or below $4,648. Until then, trade with the structure. Avoid counter-trend entries without a CHoCH confirmation on M15 or higher.
What macro drivers are affecting XAU/USD today?
**DXY neutral (+0.09%)** — no significant direct pressure. **Silver +9.0% — VERY POSITIVE.** The 0.95+ correlation between Gold and Silver is the highest across all assets. When Silver leads with this magnitude, Gold follows. Historically, Silver moves first at inflection points.
In summary
Gold climbed 0.6% and closed at $4,763. It was a very active day — price swung $106 between its low ($4,668) and high ($4,774).
The trend is bullish (high conviction, score +5). Institutions are buying into the pullbacks. If price holds above key support, more upside is likely in the next sessions.
Why? silver climbed 9.0% (when silver rallies hard, gold tends to follow).
Next important event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) (2026-05-13 09:30 Chile). Volatility likely.
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Technical analysis
Gold closed Monday May 11 at $4,763 (climbed 0.57%). 4H structure: BULLISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $106 ($4,668 - $4,774). Score: +5 Bullish.
The day in detail
Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold dropped $13 (0.3%), from $4,692 to $4,679. Moderate range of $38.
Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Quiet session. Gold moved only $13 ($4,668-$4,680). No relevant moves.
Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Strong move to the upside. Gold rose $51 from $4,675 to $4,725. Range of $81 with high at $4,749. The 13:00 UTC candle was the largest ($50 range).
Act 4 — Close (16:00-21:00 Chile): Gold rose $43 (0.9%), from $4,725 to $4,768. Moderate range of $47.
Correlations
DXY neutral (+0.09%) — no significant direct pressure.
Silver +9.0% — VERY POSITIVE. The 0.95+ correlation between Gold and Silver is the highest across all assets. When Silver leads with this magnitude, Gold follows. Historically, Silver moves first at inflection points.
Market Maker
BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,774, $4,770 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,668, $4,699, $4,708
Price near BSL $4,774. MM may sweep stops above and continue up. Second touch usually breaks.
Trade setups
1 active setup. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. One trade only; the favorite is marked. No trigger, no trade.
A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite
Entry: $4,706 · SL: $4,681 · TP1: $4,744 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.75-1%
Trigger: Bullish 5m CHoCH in zone $4,706±5
Confirmations (all required):
- Price drops to zone $4,706±5 (do not enter earlier)
- Bullish CHoCH on 5m: higher high breaks the last swing high
- 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
- Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
- Zone $4,706 NOT broken with a 5m close below
Invalid if:
- 5m close below $4,681 → setup dead
- 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,706 without reclaim → cancel
- If 2 hours pass with no trigger → expired (wait for a new analysis)
Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to support zone-$4,743 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward nearest resistance.
Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-nearest resistance with no clear direction. Volume declines.
Scenario 3 — Support break (20%): Gold loses support zone with a 1H close below. Move back to $4,706. Cancel longs.
What to do
1 active setups — see Trade setups section above for full entries, stops, targets and triggers. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support at $4,706.
Key support: $4,738. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks on a 1H close, cancel longs.
Critical event: Consumer Price Index (CPI) — 2026-05-13 09:30 Chile. Reduce exposure before the release.
Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.
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Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).