XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-NY Setup (24 Sep)

In Summary

Gold fell 0.1% and closed at $4,282. It was a moderately active day — the price moved $53 between its low ($4,244) and high ($4,297).

The market is indecisive (score +1). Price oscillates in a range with no clear direction. Better to wait for definition.

Watch Friday: the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is released (2026-09-25 09:30 Chile). A low number drives gold higher; a high one can sink it. It’s the most important data of the week.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed Thursday, September 24 at $4,282 (down 0.13%). 4H Structure: ACCUMULATION. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $53 ($4,244 - $4,297). Score: +1 Neutral.

Day in Detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold fell $12 (0.3%), from $4,289 to $4,276. Moderate range of $23. Typical Asia compression — energy built up for London.

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold fell $10 (0.2%), from $4,276 to $4,266. Moderate range of $44.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Gold rose $16 (0.4%), from $4,266 to $4,282. Moderate range of $23.

Correlations

DXY neutral (+0.12%) — no significant direct pressure.

Market Maker

BSL (short stops above): $4,297, $4,296, $4,294 SSL (long stops below): $4,244, $4,251, $4,252

Price near BSL $4,288. The MM could sweep stops above and continue higher. The second touch usually breaks.

Trade Setups

2 active setups. Entries, stops, and targets below — all public. One trade at a time; the favorite is marked. Without trigger, no trade.

A. 🔴 SHORT — Pullback to Resistance ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,350 · SL: $4,380 · TP1: $4,274 · R:R 1:2.5 · Risk: 1%

Trigger: Bearish rejection at $4,350

Confirmations (all mandatory):

• Price rises to the $4,350±5 zone (don’t short on the drop)
• CHoCH bearish on 5m: a lower low breaks the last swing low
• Rejection candle on 5m: upper wick >60% of total range (pin bar or shooting star)
• Displacement bearish: red candle with body >70%, close in the lower third
• Resistance $4,350 does NOT break with a 5m close above

Invalid if:

• 5m close above $4,380 → setup dead
• 1H close above $4,350 → resistance broken, cancel the short
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired

B. 🔴 SHORT — Support Breakdown

Entry: $4,274 · SL: $4,304 · TP1: $4,244 · R:R 1:1.0 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,274

Confirmations (all mandatory):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,274 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,274±5 and is rejected (1-3 five-minute candles)
• On the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,274 and the close stays below
• Volume of breakdown > average (breakdown candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,274 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,274 → false breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,304 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 one-hour candles after the breakdown → expired, don’t chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Upside Breakout (40%): Gold breaks the nearest resistance and continues. Bias turns bullish.

Scenario 2 — Range (40%): Gold oscillates between support and nearest resistance zones. Trade the extremes.

Scenario 3 — Downside Breakout (20%): Gold loses support zone. Bearish continuation.

What to Do

2 active setups — review the Trade Setups section above for complete entries, stops, targets, and triggers. Favorite: SHORT Pullback to Resistance at $4,350.

The market is in a range between $4,274 and $4,288. Trade the extremes with confirmation. Wait for a clean breakout to define bias.

Critical Event: Core PCE Price Index (Aug data) — 2026-09-25 09:30 Chile. Reduce exposure before release.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.