XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-Asia Setup (Apr 21)

In summary

Gold climbed 0.5% and closed at $4,743. It was a very active day — price swung $128 between its low ($4,669) and high ($4,797).

The trend is bullish (high conviction, score +3). Institutions are buying into the pullbacks. If price holds above key support, more upside is likely in the next sessions.

Why? silver dropped 3.1% (a sign of weakness across metals).

Technical analysis

Gold closed Tuesday April 21 at $4,743 (climbed 0.47%). 4H structure: BULLISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $128 ($4,669 - $4,797). Score: +3 Bullish.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold dropped $44 (0.9%), from $4,822 to $4,778. Moderate range of $22. Typical Asia compression — energy built up for London.

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $16 (0.3%), from $4,778 to $4,795. Moderate range of $24.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $85 from $4,795 to $4,710. Range of $105 with low at $4,692. The 14:00 UTC candle was the largest ($59 range). NY fully reversed London’s rally and extended the drop ($85 vs $16 de subida).

Act 4 — Close (16:00-21:00 Chile): Strong move to the upside. Gold rose $29 from $4,710 to $4,738. Range of $72 with high at $4,741. The 20:00 UTC candle was the largest ($52 range).

Correlations

DXY neutral (-0.07%) — no significant direct pressure.

Silver -3.1% — negative. Broad weakness in precious metals.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,797, $4,795, $4,783 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,669, $4,692, $4,697

Price near BSL $4,750. MM may sweep stops above and continue up. Second touch usually breaks.

Trade setups

3 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,724 · SL: $4,700 · TP1: $4,760 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.75-1%

Trigger: Bullish CHoCH 5m at $4,724±5 zone

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to $4,724±5 zone (do not enter before)
• Bullish CHoCH on 5m: higher high breaks last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• The $4,724 zone was NOT broken with 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,700 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,724 without recovery → cancel
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired (wait for new analysis)

B. 🟢 LONG — Resistance breakout

Entry: $4,750 · SL: $4,724 · TP1: $4,789 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,750

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,750 (no wicks — real close only)
• Retest: price returns to $4,750±5 and bounces (1-3 x 5m candles)
• On the retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,750 and close stays above
• Breakout volume > average (breakout candle must not be doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT return below $4,750 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,750 → false breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,724 → setup dead
• If no retest in 3 x 1H candles post-breakout → expired, do not chase

C. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,724 · SL: $4,754 · TP1: $4,679 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,724

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,724 (real close, no wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,724±5 and is rejected (1-3 x 5m candles)
• On the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,724 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (breakdown candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,724 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,724 → false breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,754 → setup dead
• If no retest in 3 x 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to support zone-$4,723 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward nearest resistance.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-nearest resistance with no clear direction. Volume declines.

Scenario 3 — Support break (20%): Gold loses support zone with a 1H close below. Move back to $4,700. Cancel longs.

What to do

3 active setups. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support.

The key support of the day is the line in the sand. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks on a 1H close, cancel longs.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

What the team says

Of 8 analysts, 1 agree and 7 have observations. There’s internal debate on this read.

Tu decides. Nosotros mostramos los datos y los desacuerdos. La decision final siempre es tuya.