XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-Asia Setup (Apr 23)

In summary

Gold climbed 0.2% and closed at $4,706. It was a moderately active day — price swung $79 between its low ($4,664) and high ($4,743).

The trend leans bullish (score +1), but with caution. If support breaks, the read changes.

Why? silver dropped 3.0% (a sign of weakness across metals).

Technical analysis

Gold closed Thursday April 23 at $4,706 (climbed 0.25%). 4H structure: ACCUMULATION. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $79 ($4,664 - $4,743). Score: +1 Bullish.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $15 from $4,728 to $4,713. Range of $51 with low at $4,692. The 00:00 UTC candle was the largest ($60 range).

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $8 (0.2%), from $4,713 to $4,721. Moderate range of $41.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $20 from $4,721 to $4,701. Range of $79 with low at $4,664. The 17:00 UTC candle was the largest ($70 range). NY fully reversed London’s rally and extended the drop ($20 vs $8 de subida).

Act 4 — Close (16:00-21:00 Chile): Quiet session. Gold moved only $18 ($4,687-$4,705). No relevant moves. Close-session consolidation — volatility spent.

Correlations

DXY neutral (+0.00%) — no significant direct pressure.

Silver -3.0% — negative. Broad weakness in precious metals.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,743, $4,741, $4,737 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,664, $4,687, $4,690

Price near BSL $4,716. MM may sweep stops above and continue up. Second touch usually breaks.

Trade setups

1 active setup. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🔴 SHORT — Support Breakdown ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,684 · SL: $4,714 · TP1: $4,639 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,684

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,684 (real close, not wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,684±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,684 and close remains below
• Breakdown volume > average (breakout candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT close back above $4,684 on 5m after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,684 → false breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,714 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to support zone-$4,686 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward nearest resistance.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-nearest resistance with no clear direction. Volume declines.

Scenario 3 — Support break (20%): Gold loses support zone with a 1H close below. Move back to $4,650. Cancel longs.

What to do

1 active setups. Favorite: SHORT Support breakdown.

The key support of the day is the line in the sand. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks on a 1H close, cancel longs.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

What the team says

Of 8 analysts, 1 agree and 7 have observations. There’s internal debate on this read.

Tu decides. Nosotros mostramos los datos y los desacuerdos. La decision final siempre es tuya.