XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Weekly Setup (Apr 12)
Gold closes the week at $4,750 (+2.4%). Weekly/Monthly analysis, Wyckoff, macro correlations and projection for the week of Apr 13-17 2026. CPI and Core PCE as catalysts.
Week Summary (Apr 6-10)
Analysis in Higher Timeframes
Wyckoff Reading — Weekly
Current Phase: TRANSITION — Ranging
Range between $3,886 and $5,602. Wait for phase definition.
| Event | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| range_high | $5,602 | |
| range_low | $3,886 |
Key Levels for the Week (Apr 13-17 2026)
Resistance Levels
| Level | Type | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,761 | BSL/Resistance | Immediate | +$11 |
| $4,783 | BSL/Resistance | Medium | +$33 |
| $4,850 | BSL/Resistance | Strong | +$100 |
| $4,900 | BSL/Resistance | Strong | +$150 |
Support Levels
| Level | Type | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,731 | SSL/Support | Immediate | -$19 |
| $4,699 | SSL/Support | Medium | -$51 |
| $4,650 | SSL/Support | Strong | -$100 |
| $4,600 | SSL/Support | Strong | -$150 |
Expected Range: $4,731 - $4,900
3 Scenarios for the Week of Apr 13-17 2026
Macro Events of the Week
| Day | Time (Chile) | Event | Impact | Effect on Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | 12:30 CL | Initial Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | High = Gold rises. Low = Gold falls. |
Weekly Scorecard
| Criteria | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | BEARISH |
| Score | -3/10 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Minimum R:R | 1:2 |
| Max Risk per Trade | 0.5% |
| Entries this Week | Premium (see plans) |
| Recommended Sessions | London KZ, NY KZ |
| Day to Avoid | Monday |
Summary in Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly Close | $4,750 |
| Weekly Low | $4,601 |
| Weekly High | $4,858 |
| Weekly Range | $257 |
| Daily ATR | $0 (HIGH) |
| Wyckoff | transition Ranging |
| Bias | BEARISH (score -3/10) |
| Resistance Levels | $4,761, $4,783, $4,850, $4,900 |
| Support Levels | $4,731, $4,699, $4,650, $4,600 |
| Recommended Risk | 0.5% per trade |
| Entries | Premium only (see plans) |
Conclusion
Gold closed the week at $4,750 (+2.4%). Weekly bias: BEARISH (score -3/10). Volatility regime: HIGH. The week of Apr 13-17 2026 will be marked by price action and structure definition.
We will update with daily analysis during the week. Next analysis: Pre-Asia Monday.
Glossary of Terms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Wyckoff Accumulation | Phase where institutions buy gradually. Includes: SC, AR, ST, SOS, LPS. |
| Selling Climax (SC) | Point of maximum selling with extreme volume. Smart money buys retail capitulation. |
| Sign of Strength (SOS) | Strong rally that confirms institutional demand. |
| Last Point of Support (LPS) | Last pullback before Markup. Best buying entry. |
| CHoCH | Change of Character. First break of structure in opposite direction. |
| BOS | Break of Structure. Confirms trend continuation. |
| FVG | Fair Value Gap. Price imbalance that tends to fill. |
| BSL / SSL | Buy-Side / Sell-Side Liquidity. Accumulated stops above/below. |
| ATR | Average True Range. Measures volatility. High ATR = wider SLs. |
| NFP | Non-Farm Payrolls. US employment report. Moves Gold significantly. |
| DXY | Dollar Index. Inverse correlation with Gold. |
Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).