Tokyo Session Gold Analysis XAU/USD — Monday, March 24, 2026
XAUUSD live analysis: gold price opens the week at $4,366 following Sunday's collapse. SMC analysis of the Tokyo session with key levels, structure, and forecast for London.
Context: Gold opens the week in war zone
Gold closed last week with a decline of -12.9% from the highs of $5,017 to $4,314 on Sunday. It’s the fourth consecutive week of declines and the most aggressive correction of 2026.
Sunday’s Asian session was historic: a $218 range with a sweep of the Yearly Open ($4,319) that generated a $130 bounce to $4,453. Now we enter the first Tokyo session of the week with price stabilizing at $4,366-$4,388.
Market structure — Top Down
| TF | Bias | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Daily | Deteriorating bullish | Maintains long-term structure but with accumulated bearish BOS. RSI sub-20 (historic oversold) |
| 4H | BEARISH | Confirmed bearish BOS. Price below all EMAs |
| 1H | BEARISH | Series of lower highs and lower lows from $5,017 |
| 15M | Ranging | Post-bounce consolidation between $4,350-$4,400 |
What the structure tells us
The structure is bearish across all operational timeframes (4H, 1H). However, the Daily RSI at 19.7 (sub-20 for the first time in months) and Bollinger Bands broken below suggest we are in a zone of extreme oversold. This doesn’t mean automatic buying — it means new shorts are high-risk and bounces can be violent.
Wyckoff Analysis — Accumulation Phase
From a Wyckoff perspective, the decline from $5,017 to $4,314 (-14%) has the classic characteristics of a Selling Climax (SC). Volume exploded on Sunday with a $218 intraday range, followed by an aggressive bounce of $130 — that bounce is the candidate for Automatic Rally (AR).
We are potentially in Phase A of a Wyckoff accumulation. The SC marks the first attempt to halt the downtrend, and the AR confirms that there is institutional demand willing to absorb supply. What follows according to the classic scheme is a Secondary Test (ST) — a retest of the $4,314-$4,320 area with decreasing volume confirming that selling pressure has been exhausted.
Key: If the ST holds the $4,314 area with lower volume and slower decline speed than the original SC, we have confirmation of complete Phase A. If it loses $4,314 with increasing volume, the SC was not what it seemed and we target lower levels ($4,200). In Tokyo, the $4,350-$4,400 consolidation would be the natural pause between the SC/AR and the first ST attempt.
Key levels for the Tokyo Session
| Level | Type | Relevance |
|---|---|---|
| $4,314 | Sunday’s low / Yearly Open sweep | Institutional support. The $130 bounce confirms demand here |
| $4,320 | Technical support (confluence) | Accumulation zone if price retests |
| $4,350 | Current consolidation | Base of Asian range |
| $4,400 | Psychological resistance + bearish FVG | Former support, now resistance. Tested 4 times Sunday |
| $4,453 | Sunday’s Asian bounce high | Short stops. If broken, squeeze toward $4,478 |
| $4,497 | Bear OB A+ (CHoCH origin) | Strong institutional resistance |
What to expect in the Tokyo Session (21:00 - 03:00 UTC-3)
Expected pattern: Consolidation + range definition
Monday’s Tokyo/Asia session typically:
- Defines the range that London will break
- Consolidates after strong weekend moves
- Sweeps local liquidity in both directions (Asian sweep)
3 Scenarios
Main scenario: Range $4,350 - $4,400 (65%)
After Sunday’s collapse, the market needs to digest the move. We expect consolidation between $4,350 and $4,400 during Tokyo. This range will define the levels that London will sweep.
What to do: Mark the high and low of the Asian session. Don’t trade within the range. Wait for London for the breakout.
Bullish scenario: Squeeze to $4,450+ (20%)
Extreme oversold RSI generates a technical short squeeze. Sunday’s shorts take profits and price rises to retest $4,450-$4,453 (Sunday’s bounce high). Possible extension to $4,478 if there’s momentum.
Trigger: Price breaks $4,400 with volume and holds above on 15M.
Bearish scenario: Retest of $4,314 (15%)
Direct continuation of the decline. Tokyo sweeps the consolidation low and targets a retest of the Yearly Open at $4,314. If it loses that level, target $4,285 and potentially $4,200 (Daily EMA 200).
Trigger: Price loses $4,350 with displacement candles on 15M.
Macro catalysts for the week
| Day | Event | Time (UTC) | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 24 | Japan Core CPI | 23:30 | HIGH — Affects JPY and risk sentiment in Asia |
| Tue 25 | BoJ Meeting Minutes | 23:50 | MEDIUM — Hawkish/dovish tone moves JPY crosses |
| Wed 26 | Lagarde Speech (ECB) | 08:45 | MEDIUM — EUR/USD direction, indirect correlation to Gold |
| Thu 27 | US Initial Jobless Claims | 12:30 | HIGH — US labor market, direct impact on DXY and Gold |
| Fri 28 | Eurozone CPI/HICP | 08:00 | HIGH — ECB policy expectations |
Note: There’s no PCE this week (correction from previous analysis — PCE Core is Friday 28 but confirmed data is Eurozone CPI). The highest-impact event for Gold is US Jobless Claims on Thursday.
Geopolitics
Iran-US tensions remain elevated and represent risk of extreme volatility at any moment. An escalation would benefit Gold (safe haven), while de-escalation would accelerate the correction.
Current correlations
| Asset | Price | Trend | Impact on Gold |
|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 99.12-99.30 | Bearish (below 100) | Positive — Weak dollar should support Gold |
| US10Y | ~4.28% | Bullish | Negative — Rising yields pressure Gold |
| JPY | Strengthened | Japan CPI today | Mixed — Risk-off favors JPY and Gold |
Conflict: DXY bearish (positive for Gold) but US10Y bullish (negative). The dominant correlation this week will be US10Y — as long as yields keep rising, Gold will face downward pressure despite the weak dollar.
Operative plan for today
Tokyo (21:00 - 03:00 Chile)
- DO NOT TRADE. Let the market define the range.
- Mark the high and low of the Asian session.
- Set alerts at $4,400 (resistance) and $4,350 (support).
London (04:00 - 05:00 Chile)
- Look for Asian range sweep in the first hour of London.
- If London sweeps the Asian high and rejects → look for short toward $4,350-$4,320.
- If London sweeps the Asian low and recovers → look for long toward $4,400-$4,450.
NY (09:30 - 11:00 Chile)
- Second impulse. If London gave direction, NY continues.
- If London was ranging, NY defines the real direction of the day.
Recommended alerts
1. XAU/USD crosses $4,400 to the upside → "Psychological resistance, look for rejection or breakout"
2. XAU/USD crosses $4,350 to the downside → "Support broken, possible retest of $4,314"
3. XAU/USD crosses $4,453 to the upside → "Sunday's bounce high swept, active short squeeze"
4. XAU/USD crosses $4,314 to the downside → "Yearly Open lost, target $4,200"Analysis scorecard
| Criterion | Value |
|---|---|
| Session | Tokyo |
| Bias | Bearish |
| Confidence | 3/10 (extreme oversold reduces confidence in shorts) |
| Setups | 3 (range, bullish squeeze, bearish continuation) |
| Average R:R | 1:2.5 |
| Key long level | $4,314 (SC / Yearly Open) |
| Key short level | $4,497 (Bear OB A+) |
| Dominant correlation | US10Y bullish → bearish pressure on Gold |
| Event risk | HIGH (Iran-US geopolitics + Japan CPI today) |
TradingView Alerts
// === Tokyo Session Alerts — XAU/USD 24 Mar 2026 ===
// Configure in TradingView > Alerts > Condition: Crossing
// 1. Psychological resistance
//@alert_message="XAUUSD crosses $4,400 to the upside — Psychological resistance, look for rejection or confirmed breakout on 15M"
// Condition: XAUUSD Crossing Up 4400
// 2. Asian range support
//@alert_message="XAUUSD loses $4,350 — Range support broken, possible SC retest at $4,314"
// Condition: XAUUSD Crossing Down 4350
// 3. Short squeeze trigger
//@alert_message="XAUUSD crosses $4,453 — Sunday's bounce high swept, active short squeeze toward $4,478-$4,497"
// Condition: XAUUSD Crossing Up 4453
// 4. SC invalidation
//@alert_message="XAUUSD loses $4,314 — Selling Climax invalidated, Yearly Open lost, target $4,200"
// Condition: XAUUSD Crossing Down 4314Summary in numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Week opening price | $4,366 |
| Sunday range | $218 ($4,314 - $4,532) |
| Decline from ATH | -12.9% ($5,017 → $4,366) |
| Daily RSI | 19.7 (historic oversold) |
| Expected Tokyo range | $4,350 - $4,400 ($50) |
| Critical support | $4,314 (SC + Yearly Open) |
| Critical resistance | $4,497 (Bear OB A+) |
| Consecutive bearish weeks | 4 |
| Distance to Daily EMA 200 | ~$166 ($4,200) |
| Range scenario probability | 65% |
| Bullish scenario probability | 20% |
| Bearish scenario probability | 15% |
Glossary of terms used
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Asian Range | Price range defined during the Tokyo/Asia session. London typically sweeps this range |
| Liquidity Sweep | Move that sweeps accumulated stops at a level then reverses |
| BOS | Break of Structure — rupture of a swing high/low that confirms trend continuation |
| FVG | Fair Value Gap — price imbalance between 3 candles where there was no fair trading |
| Order Block | Last candle before institutional impulsive move. Zone where smart money accumulated positions |
Disclaimer: This analysis is educational. It is not financial advice. Trading carries the risk of capital loss.
Informes pre-sesión con setups de entrada
Antes de cada sesión recibes los setups probables con entry, SL y TP exactos, correlaciones con DXY, Oil y Yields, noticias macro del día, y mapa de liquidez. Llegas al mercado con un plan.
Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).