XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-London Setup (Apr 23)

In summary

Gold fell 0.5% and closed at $4,718. It was a moderately active day — price swung $62 between its low ($4,692) and high ($4,754).

The trend is bearish (high conviction, score -5). Sellers are in control. If resistance isn’t reclaimed, more downside is likely.

Why? silver dropped 2.2% (a sign of weakness across metals).

Technical analysis

Gold closed Thursday April 23 at $4,718 (fell 0.47%). 4H structure: BEARISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $62 ($4,692 - $4,754). Score: -5 Bearish.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $15 from $4,728 to $4,713. Range of $62 with low at $4,692. The 00:00 UTC candle was the largest ($60 range).

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $5 (0.1%), from $4,713 to $4,718. Moderate range of $22.

Correlations

DXY neutral (+0.05%) — no significant direct pressure.

Silver -2.2% — negative. Broad weakness in precious metals.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,754, $4,750, $4,742 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,692, $4,694, $4,698

Price near SSL $4,692. MM may sweep stops below and bounce. Bearish trap likely.

Trade setups

3 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🔴 SHORT — Retracement to resistance ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,800 · SL: $4,830 · TP1: $4,692 · R:R 1:3.6 · Risk: 1%

Trigger: Bearish rejection at $4,800

Confirmations (all required):

• Price rises to zone $4,800±5 (don’t short on the fall)
• Bearish CHoCH on 5m: lower low breaks last swing low
• 5m rejection candle: upper wick >60% of total range (pin bar or shooting star)
• Bearish displacement: red candle with body >70%, close in lower third
• Resistance $4,800 was NOT broken with 5m close above

Invalid if:

• 5m close above $4,830 → setup dead
• 1H close above $4,800 → resistance broken, cancel short
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired

B. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,692 · SL: $4,722 · TP1: $4,600 · R:R 1:3.1 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,692

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,692 (real close, not wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,692±5 and is rejected (1-3 x 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,692 and close remains below
• Breakdown volume > average (breakout candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,692 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,692 → false breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,722 → setup dead
• If no retest in 3 x 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, don’t chase

C. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support

Entry: $4,692 · SL: $4,600 · TP1: $4,800 · R:R 1:1.2 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Bullish CHoCH 5m in zone $4,692±5

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to zone $4,692±5 (don’t enter before)
• Bullish CHoCH on 5m: higher high breaks last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• Zone $4,692 was NOT broken with 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,600 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,692 without recovery → cancel
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired (wait for new analysis)

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Retest of resistance and rejection (50%): Gold rallies to nearest resistance and gets rejected. Sellers defend resistance. Bearish continuation toward support zone.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-nearest resistance without direction. Wait for a catalyst.

Scenario 3 — Upside breakout (20%): Gold breaks nearest resistance with a 1H close above. Bias changes. Cancel shorts.

What to do

3 active setups. Favorite: SHORT Pullback to resistance.

Key resistance is the level to watch. Rejection = bearish continuation. Break on a 1H close = cancel shorts.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

What the team says

Of 8 analysts, 2 agree and 6 have observations. There’s internal debate on this read.

Tu decides. Nosotros mostramos los datos y los desacuerdos. La decision final siempre es tuya.