XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-NY Setup (Apr 24)

In summary

Gold climbed 0.1% and closed at $4,701. It was a moderately active day — price swung $59 between its low ($4,658) and high ($4,717).

The trend is bullish (high conviction, score +4). Institutions are buying into the pullbacks. If price holds above key support, more upside is likely in the next sessions.

Technical analysis

Gold closed Friday April 24 at $4,701 (climbed 0.14%). 4H structure: ACCUMULATION. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $59 ($4,658 - $4,717). Score: +4 Bullish.

The day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Bearish pressure. Gold dropped $24 from $4,695 to $4,672. Range of $53 with low at $4,658. The 02:00 UTC candle was the largest ($28 range).

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $35 (0.7%), from $4,672 to $4,707. Moderate range of $46.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Gold dropped $6 (0.1%), from $4,707 to $4,701. Moderate range of $22.

Correlations

DXY falling (-0.17%) — dollar weakness favors Gold. Inverse correlation active. As long as DXY keeps weakening, Gold has a tailwind.

Market Maker

BSL (stops of shorts above): $4,717, $4,712, $4,701 SSL (stops of longs below): $4,658, $4,667, $4,669

Price near BSL $4,711. MM may sweep stops above and continue up. Second touch usually breaks.

Trade setups

1 active setup. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,675 · SL: $4,705 · TP1: $4,600 · R:R 1:2.5 · Risk: 0.5%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,675

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,675 (real close, not a wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,675±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• At the retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,675 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (break candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,675 with a 5m close after the retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,675 → fake breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,705 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, do not chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to support zone-$4,681 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward nearest resistance.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-nearest resistance with no clear direction. Volume declines.

Scenario 3 — Support break (20%): Gold loses support zone with a 1H close below. Move back to $4,650. Cancel longs.

What to do

1 active setups. Favorite: SHORT Support breakdown.

The key support of the day is the line in the sand. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks on a 1H close, cancel longs.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This is educational content and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.

What the team says

Of 8 analysts, 1 agree and 7 have observations. There’s internal debate on this read.

Tu decides. Nosotros mostramos los datos y los desacuerdos. La decision final siempre es tuya.