XAU/USD Analysis Pre-Asia April 1 - Gold at $4,798, Bullish Bias

Summary

Gold rose 0.84% and closed at $4,798. It was a highly volatile day — the price moved $85 between its lowest point ($4,716) and highest point ($4,801).

The trend is bullish (high confidence, score +7). Large institutions are buying on pullbacks. If the price holds above key support, it’s likely to continue rising in the next sessions.

Why? Silver rose 1.6% (when silver rises strongly, gold typically follows); the dollar is weakening (positive for gold).

Key data: U.S. employment report (2026-04-03 09:30 Chile). A strong report strengthens the dollar and pressures gold.

Technical Analysis

Gold closed on Wed Apr 1 at $4,798 (rose 0.84%). Structure 4H: BULLISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $85 ($4,716 - $4,801). Score: +7 BULLISH.

Day in Detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Quiet session. Gold moved only $17 ($4,716-$4,733). No relevant moves. Typical Asia compression — accumulated energy for London.

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold rose $22 (0.5%), from $4,731 to $4,753. Moderate range of $47.

Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Strong upward movement. Gold rose $1 from $4,753 to $4,753. Range of $77 with high at $4,793. The 14:00 UTC candle was the largest ($45 range).

Act 4 — Close (16:00-21:00 Chile): Gold rose $45 (0.9%), from $4,753 to $4,798. Moderate range of $49.

Volatility: ELEVATED

Daily ATR $190 vs normal $142 (1.3x). Moves are faster and liquidity sweeps are more aggressive. SLs adjusted x1.25, reduced risk.

Correlations

DXY falling (-0.31%) — dollar weakness favors Gold. Active inverse correlation. As long as DXY keeps weakening, Gold has tailwinds.

Silver +1.6% — positive. Precious metals move in the same direction.

Market Maker

Institutions are accumulating on pullbacks. Liquidity sweeps are buying opportunities, not signs of weakness.

Trade setups

4 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,687 · SL: $4,656 · TP1: $4,733 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.8%

Trigger: Bullish CHoCH at 5m in zone $4,687±5

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to zone $4,687±5 (don’t enter before)
• Bullish CHoCH at 5m: higher high breaks last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• Zone $4,687 was NOT broken with 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,662 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,687 without recovery → cancel
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired (wait for new analysis)

B. 🟢 LONG — Resistance breakout

Entry: $4,725 · SL: $4,678 · TP1: $4,796 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.6%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,725

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,725 (no wicks — close only)
• Retest: price returns to $4,725±5 and bounces (1-3 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,725 and close stays above
• Breakout volume > average (breakout candle must not be doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT return below $4,725 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,725 → false breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,687 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakout → expired, don’t pursue

C. 🔴 SHORT — Pullback to resistance

Entry: $4,725 · SL: $4,762 · TP1: $4,669 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.4%

Trigger: Bearish rejection at $4,725

Confirmations (all required):

• Price rises to zone $4,725±5 (don’t short on the fall)
• Bearish CHoCH at 5m: lower low breaks last swing low
• 5m rejection candle: upper wick >60% of total range (pin bar or shooting star)
• Bearish displacement: red candle with body >70%, close in lower third
• Resistance $4,725 was NOT broken with 5m close above

Invalid if:

• 5m close above $4,755 → setup dead
• 1H close above $4,725 → resistance broken, cancel short
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired

D. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown

Entry: $4,687 · SL: $4,724 · TP1: $4,631 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.4%

Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,687

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes BELOW $4,687 (real close, no wick)
• Retest: price returns to $4,687±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,687 and close stays below
• Breakdown volume > average (breakdown candle with body >60%)
• Price does NOT return above $4,687 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back above $4,687 → false breakdown, cancel
• 5m close above $4,717 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, don’t pursue

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy Pullback and Continuation (50%): Gold retraces to support zone and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward next resistance.

Scenario 2 — Range Consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support zone-next resistance with no clear direction. Volume declines.

Scenario 3 — Support Break (20%): Gold loses support zone with 1H close below. Return to $4,748. Cancel longs.

What to Do

3 active setups. Favorite: LONG Pullback to Support.

Today’s key support is the line of defense. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks with 1H close below, cancel longs.

Critical event: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — 2026-04-03 09:30 Chile. Reduce exposure before the data.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This analysis is educational and is not financial advice. Trading carries the risk of capital loss.