XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Weekly Setup (May 3)
Gold closes the week at $4,614 (-1.8%). Weekly/Monthly analysis, Wyckoff, macro correlations and outlook for the week of 4-8 May 2026. CPI and Core PCE as catalysts.
Week in Review (27 Apr-1 May)
Higher timeframes analysis
Weekly Wyckoff read
Current phase: TRANSITION — Ranging
Rango entre $3,998 y $5,602. Esperar definicion de fase.
| Event | Price | Description |
|---|---|---|
| range_high | $5,602 | |
| range_low | $3,998 |
Key levels for the week of 4-8 May 2026
Resistance
| Level | Type | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,619 | BSL/Resistance | Immediate | +$5 |
| $4,647 | BSL/Resistance | Medium | +$33 |
| $4,700 | BSL/Resistance | Strong | +$86 |
| $4,730 | BSL/Resistance | Strong | +$116 |
Support
| Level | Type | Strength | Distance |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,600 | SSL/Support | Immediate | -$14 |
| $4,540 | SSL/Support | Medium | -$74 |
| $4,500 | SSL/Support | Strong | -$114 |
| $4,450 | SSL/Support | Strong | -$164 |
Expected range: $4,600 - $4,730
3 Scenarios for the week of 4-8 May 2026
Macro events this week
| Date | Time (Chile) | Event | Impact | Gold effect |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 14:00 CL | ISM Manufacturing PMI | MEDIUM | Debil = expectativa dovish = Gold sube. |
| 2026-05-06 | 12:15 CL | ADP Employment Change | MEDIUM | Anticipa NFP (impreciso). |
| 2026-05-06 | 14:00 CL | ISM Services PMI | MEDIUM | 70% del PIB USA. |
| 2026-05-06 | 18:00 CL | FOMC Interest Rate Decision | VERY HIGH | Sube tasa = Gold baja. Baja tasa = Gold sube. |
| 2026-05-07 | 12:30 CL | Initial Jobless Claims | MEDIUM | Alto = Gold sube. Bajo = Gold baja. |
Weekly scorecard
| Criterion | Value |
|---|---|
| Bias | Bullish |
| Score | 5/10 |
| Confidence | Medium |
| Minimum R:R | 1:1.5 |
| Max risk per trade | 1% |
| Entries this week | Premium (see plans) |
| Recommended sessions | London KZ, NY KZ |
| Day to avoid | Monday |
| Key day | 2026-05-06 (FOMC Interest Rate Decision) |
Numbers recap
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly close | $4,614 |
| Weekly low | $4,510 |
| Weekly high | $4,730 |
| Weekly range | $220 |
| Daily ATR | $0 (NORMAL) |
| Wyckoff | transition Ranging |
| Bias | Bullish (score 5/10) |
| Resistance | $4,619, $4,647, $4,700, $4,730 |
| Support | $4,600, $4,540, $4,500, $4,450 |
| Key event | FOMC Interest Rate Decision (2026-05-06) |
| Recommended risk | 1% per trade |
| Entries | Premium only (see plans) |
Conclusion
Gold closed the week at $4,614 (-1.8%). Weekly bias: Bullish (score 5/10). Volatility regime: NORMAL. The week of 4-8 May 2026 will be shaped by FOMC Interest Rate Decision — the key event that can define direction.
We’ll publish daily analyses during the week. Next analysis: Pre-Asia Monday.
Glossary
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Wyckoff Accumulation | Phase where institutions buy gradually. Includes: SC, AR, ST, SOS, LPS. |
| Selling Climax (SC) | Peak-selling point with extreme volume. Smart money buys the retail capitulation. |
| Sign of Strength (SOS) | Strong rally confirming institutional demand. |
| Last Point of Support (LPS) | Final pullback before Markup. Best long entry. |
| CHoCH | Change of Character. First structural break in the opposite direction. |
| BOS | Break of Structure. Confirms trend continuation. |
| FVG | Fair Value Gap. Price imbalance that tends to get filled. |
| BSL / SSL | Buy-Side / Sell-Side Liquidity. Stops stacked above/below. |
| ATR | Average True Range. Measures volatility. Higher ATR = wider SLs. |
| NFP | Non-Farm Payrolls. US employment report. Moves Gold significantly. |
| DXY | Dollar Index. Inverse correlation with Gold. |
Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).