XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-London Setup (Apr 14)

Summary

Gold rose 0.8% and closed at $4,776. It was a day of moderate movement — the price moved $45 between its low ($4,751) and high ($4,797).

The trend points upward (score +1), but with caution. If it loses support, the reading changes.

Why? Silver rose 2.6% (when silver rises strongly, gold usually follows); the dollar is weakening (positive for gold).

Technical Analysis

Gold closed on Apr 14 at $4,776 (rose 0.75%). Structure 4H: BEARISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Daily range: $45 ($4,751 - $4,797). Score: +1 BULLISH.

Day in detail

Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold rose $24 (0.5%), from $4,758 to $4,782. Moderate range of $31.

Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold fell $7 (0.1%), from $4,782 to $4,775. Moderate range of $45.

Correlations

DXY declining (-0.33%) — dollar weakness favors Gold. Inverse correlation active. As long as DXY continues weakening, Gold has favorable winds.

Silver +2.6% — positive. Precious metals move in the same direction.

Market Maker

Institutions are distributing on rallies. Upside breakouts are potential traps.

Trade setups

3 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,745 · SL: $4,724 · TP1: $4,795 · R:R 1:2.4 · Risk: 0.75-1%

Trigger: Bullish CHoCH 5m at $4,745±5 zone

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to $4,745±5 zone (do not enter before)
• Bullish CHoCH on 5m: higher high breaks last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• The $4,745 zone was NOT broken with 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,724 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,745 without recovery → cancel
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired (await new analysis)

B. 🟢 LONG — Resistance breakout

Entry: $4,795 · SL: $4,745 · TP1: $4,900 · R:R 1:2.1 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,795

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,795 (no wicks — close only)
• Retest: price returns to $4,795±5 and bounces (1-3 5m candles)
• On the retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,795 and close stays above
• Breakout volume > average (breakout candle must not be doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT return below $4,795 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,795 → false breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,745 → setup dead
• If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakout → expired, do not chase

C. 🔴 SHORT — Resistance retracement

Entry: $4,795 · SL: $4,825 · TP1: $4,745 · R:R 1:1.7 · Risk: 1%

Trigger: Bearish rejection at $4,795

Confirmations (all required):

• Price rises to $4,795±5 zone (do not short in decline)
• Bearish CHoCH on 5m: lower low breaks last swing low
• 5m rejection candle: upper wick >60% of total range (pin bar or shooting star)
• Bearish displacement: red candle with body >70%, close in lower third
• The $4,795 resistance was NOT broken with 5m close above

Invalid if:

• 5m close above $4,825 → setup dead
• 1H close above $4,795 → resistance broken, cancel short
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to support zone near $4,756 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward next resistance.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support and next resistance without clear direction. Volume drops.

Scenario 3 — Support breakdown (20%): Gold loses support zone with 1H close below. Return to $4,724. Cancel longs.

What to do

3 active setups. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support.

The key support of the day is the defense line. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks with 1H close below, cancel longs.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This analysis is educational and is not financial advice. Trading carries the risk of capital loss.