XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-Asia Setup (Apr 13)
XAU/USD at $4,768. 4H structure BULLISH. Wyckoff: transition. 3 active setups. Score +4.
Summary
Gold rose 0.6% and closed at $4,768. It was a day of moderate movement — the price moved $68 between its lowest point ($4,701) and highest point ($4,768).
The trend is bullish (high confidence, score +4). Large institutions are buying on pullbacks. If the price holds above key support, it’s likely to rise in coming sessions.
Technical analysis
Gold closed on Mon April 13 at $4,768 (rose 0.58%). Structure 4H: BULLISH. Wyckoff Ranging. Day range: $68 ($4,701 - $4,768). Score: +4 BULLISH.
The day in detail
Act 1 — Asia (21:00-04:00 Chile): Gold rose $54 (1.2%), from $4,671 to $4,726. Moderate range of $32.
Act 2 — London (04:00-09:00 Chile): Gold fell $19 (0.4%), from $4,726 to $4,707. Moderate range of $37.
Act 3 — NY (09:00-16:00 Chile): Gold rose $31 (0.7%), from $4,707 to $4,738. Moderate range of $50.
Act 4 — Close (16:00-21:00 Chile): Gold rose $19 (0.4%), from $4,738 to $4,758. Moderate range of $35.
Correlations
DXY neutral (-0.03%) — no significant direct pressure.
Market Maker
Institutions are accumulating on pullbacks. Liquidity sweeps are buying opportunities, not signs of weakness.
Trade setups
1 active setup. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.
A. 🔴 SHORT — Support breakdown ⭐ Favorite
Entry: $4,699 · SL: $4,729 · TP1: $4,654 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%
Trigger: Breakdown + retest of $4,699
Confirmations (all required):
- 1H candle closes BELOW $4,699 (real close, no wick)
- Retest: price returns to $4,699±5 and is rejected (1-3 5m candles)
- On retest: 5m candle with upper wick touches $4,699 and close remains below
- Breakdown volume > average (breakout candle with body >60%)
- Price does NOT return above $4,699 with 5m close after retest
Invalid if:
- 1H close back above $4,699 → false breakdown, cancel
- 5m close above $4,729 → dead setup
- If no retest within 3 1H candles post-breakdown → expired, don’t chase
Scenarios
Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold pulls back to support zone-$4,748 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward next resistance.
Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between support-next resistance zone with no clear direction. Volume drops.
Scenario 3 — Support break (20%): Gold loses support zone with 1H close below. Return to $4,724. Cancel longs.
What to do
3 active setups. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support.
The key support of the day is the defense line. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks with 1H close, cancel longs.
Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This analysis is educational and is not financial advice. Trading carries the risk of capital loss.
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Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).