Weekly Analysis XAU/USD - March 29, 2026
Gold closes the week at $4,494 after a +$389 bounce from the $4,105 lows. Wyckoff accumulation underway. Weekly and Monthly analysis, key levels and outlook for the week of March 30 - April 4.
Weekly recap (March 24-28)
A week of recovery and accumulation for gold. After the previous week’s collapse (from $5,017 to $4,497, -10.4%), Gold found a floor this week and bounced sharply.
The numbers:
- Weekly open: $4,497 (previous close)
- Week’s low: $4,105 (Sunday March 23, Asia) — Wyckoff Selling Climax
- Week’s high: $4,603 (Tuesday March 25, London) — Sign of Strength
- Weekly close: $4,494
- Total range: $498 (extreme)
- Weekly change: -0.1% (flat after the bounce)
The most important move happened Sunday the 23rd at night (Asia session): Gold plunged from $4,497 to $4,105 in a brutal Selling Climax of -$392. It then bounced back with equal violence to $4,510 (Automatic Rally), and on Tuesday during London produced a squeeze to $4,603 (Sign of Strength). From there, it pulled back and closed the week at $4,494.
The SC -> AR -> ST -> SOS sequence is classic Wyckoff accumulation. The market went from total capitulation to the first signs of institutional demand in just 5 days.
Higher timeframe analysis
Monthly
March 2026 will be remembered as the month of gold’s great correction. After a historic rally that took Gold above $5,400, price corrected more than 20% in less than 3 weeks.
Monthly context:
- Monthly open (March): ~$5,200
- Monthly high: ~$5,400
- Monthly low: $4,105
- Current close: $4,494
- Correction from ATH: -$906 (-16.8% from $5,400)
- Monthly candle: Massive bearish engulfing with lower wick at $4,105
The March monthly candle is a bearish engulfing with a huge body. However, the lower wick at $4,105 shows clear rejection of lower prices. In the context of the larger uptrend (Gold rose from $2,000 to $5,400 in 18 months), this 20% correction is healthy — similar to the corrections of 2020 (-15%) and 2022 (-20%) before continuing higher.
Key Monthly level: $4,200 (50 EMA Monthly). As long as Gold closes above this level, the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Weekly
The weekly candle for March 24-28 is a hammer/doji — small body ($4,494 close vs $4,497 open) with a massive lower wick ($389 down to $4,105). This is one of the strongest potential reversal signals in Japanese candlestick analysis.
Weekly structure:
- Weekly trend: Bearish since $5,400 (2 consecutive red weeks)
- First sign of slowing: Hammer this week
- Weekly support: $4,105 (SC) and $4,200 (50 EMA Monthly)
- Weekly resistance: $4,600 (AR / weekly high) and $4,960 (Breaker Block from the collapse)
- 20 EMA Weekly: ~$4,800 (far away — needs time to converge)
Reading: The bearish trend on the Weekly has not officially changed (no Weekly CHoCH). However, the hammer with extreme volume suggests that institutions absorbed massive supply in the $4,105-$4,300 zone. The next step is confirmation: if next week closes above $4,500, it will be the first green candle — early bullish confirmation.
Daily
Complete daily sequence for the week:
- Sunday 23: Selling Climax — $4,497 -> $4,105 (-$392). Extreme volume.
- Monday 24: Automatic Rally — $4,105 -> $4,510 (+$405). Violent short squeeze.
- Tuesday 25: SOS — Higher lows ($4,310 -> $4,355 -> $4,375). London squeeze to $4,603.
- Wednesday 26: Post-SOS pullback — $4,603 -> $4,440. Normal (55% retracement).
- Thursday 27: Consolidation — $4,430-$4,530 range. Volume declining.
- Friday 28: Close at $4,494. Doji candle. Market awaiting resolution.
Daily structure: The higher lows ($4,105 -> $4,310 -> $4,376) are the first sign that the bearish trend is losing momentum. But there is NO Daily CHoCH yet — price needs to close above $4,603 to confirm a change of character.
Wyckoff reading — Weekly
The entire week fits perfectly into the Wyckoff accumulation schematic:
| Event | Price | Date | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Selling Climax (SC) | $4,105 | Sun March 23 | Total capitulation. Extreme volume. Smart money buying. |
| Automatic Rally (AR) | $4,510 | Mon March 24 | Automatic bounce. Short covering + first institutional buying. |
| Secondary Test (ST) | $4,310 | Tue March 25 (Asia) | Test of the SC. Volume lower than SC = supply absorbed. |
| Sign of Strength (SOS) | $4,603 | Tue March 25 (London) | Rally with conviction. Briefly exceeds AR. Demand confirmed. |
| Expected LPS | $4,400-$4,475 | Next week | Last Point of Support. The FINAL pullback before Markup. |
Current phase: Phase C-D (post-SOS). Waiting for the Last Point of Support (LPS).
The LPS is the most important pullback in the entire accumulation structure. It is the last buying opportunity before price rises significantly (Markup). LPS characteristics:
- Price pulls back to the support zone ($4,400-$4,475)
- Declining volume (supply exhausted)
- Timing: can take 1-3 days
- Must NOT break the ST low ($4,310)
Wyckoff invalidation: Weekly close below $4,105 (SC). If this happens, the accumulation fails and the Markdown continues toward $3,900-$4,000.
Correlations — Macro overview
| Asset | Price | Weekly change | Impact on Gold | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | 100.19 | +0.33% | Negative | Dollar rising — pressures Gold. But the DXY rally is losing momentum. |
| US10Y | 4.43% | +0.45% | Negative | Yields rising — direct competition for Gold. Inverse correlation -0.87. |
| Silver | $69.80 | +3.14% | Very positive | Silver leading — correlation 0.95+. When Silver leads, Gold follows. |
| VIX | 31.04 | +13.16% | Mixed | Elevated fear. Can cause margin calls (negative) or flight to safety (positive). |
| Oil (WTI) | $101.17 | +7.86% | Mixed | Oil rising = inflation = hawkish Fed. But also increases demand for Gold as a hedge. |
The macro battle
There is a clear contradiction in the market:
In favor of Gold (bullish):
- Silver +3.14% leading — historically strong signal
- Elevated VIX = uncertainty = safe haven demand
- Wyckoff accumulation with confirmed SC
- Oil rising = inflation = Gold as a hedge
Against Gold (bearish):
- DXY rising — dollar strength pressures commodities
- Yields rising — bonds compete with Gold
- Hawkish Fed — expectations of higher rates for longer
Verdict: The market is in a tug of war. Macro numbers point to bearish pressure (DXY + yields), but price action shows institutional accumulation. Our 8 analysts are divided — 7 out of 8 have observations about this contradiction.
Next week, Friday’s NFP on April 4 will be the catalyst that defines the direction. A weak NFP could resolve this contradiction in Gold’s favor.
Key levels for the week (March 30 - April 4)
Resistance
| Level | Type | Strength | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,500 | Psychological | Medium | Immediate resistance. First test for the bulls. |
| $4,550 | BSL | Medium | Buy-side liquidity. Accumulated short stops. |
| $4,600 | AR (Wyckoff) | Strong | Automatic Rally from the week. Weekly high. Breaking it = Daily CHoCH = Markup. |
| $4,700 | Former support | Strong | Support from the March 14-18 week. Now resistance. Extended bullish target. |
| $4,960 | Breaker Block | Very strong | Distribution zone from the collapse. Very far away. Only relevant in a strongly bullish scenario. |
Support
| Level | Type | Strength | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| $4,475 | Key support | Strong | Recent higher low. First line of defense. |
| $4,445 | SSL | Medium | Sell-side liquidity. Recent long stops. |
| $4,400 | Psychological | Strong | Round number + expected LPS zone. Likely reaction. |
| $4,319 | Yearly Open | Very strong | 2026 yearly open. Defended last week with a $130 bounce. |
| $4,200 | Daily 200 EMA | Very strong | Long-term bull/bear dividing line. Losing this changes everything. |
| $4,105 | Wyckoff SC | Extreme | Selling Climax. If lost, total invalidation of accumulation. |
Expected range
Based on Weekly ATR ($498 this week, elevated) and the accumulation dynamics:
- Conservative range: $4,400 - $4,600
- Extended range: $4,319 - $4,700 (if NFP surprises)
3 Scenarios for the week of March 30 - April 4
Scenario 1: Bullish — LPS and continuation toward $4,600 (45%)
Gold pulls back to the $4,400-$4,475 zone (Wyckoff LPS) during Monday-Wednesday. The pullback occurs with declining volume — a sign that supply has been exhausted. Price forms a higher low above $4,400 and generates an impulse toward $4,600 (previous AR). If it breaks $4,600 with a Daily close, Markup begins.
Confirmations:
- Pullback to $4,400-$4,475 with lower volume than last week
- Higher low on 4H above $4,376
- Daily candle with a long lower wick in the $4,400-$4,475 zone
- Silver holding strong (+1% or more)
Invalidation: Daily close below $4,376 (previous higher low broken).
Scenario 2: Neutral — Range-bound consolidation (35%)
Gold stays between $4,400 and $4,550 all week. Small candles, low volume, no direction. Wyckoff accumulation continues but needs more time. Resolution is postponed until Friday’s NFP on April 4.
Confirmations:
- Price contained within $4,400-$4,550 for 3+ days
- Volume declining day by day
- No clear BOS on 4H
Invalidation: 4H close outside the $4,350-$4,650 range.
Scenario 3: Bearish — Loss of $4,400 and retest of lows (20%)
DXY continues strengthening (toward 101+). Yields accelerate higher. Gold loses $4,400 with a Daily close and targets $4,319 (Yearly Open) or $4,200 (Daily 200 EMA). The Wyckoff accumulation comes into question — it could be a pause before further markdown.
Confirmations:
- DXY breaks 101 with momentum
- Daily close below $4,400
- Rising volume on the decline
- Silver turning lower
Invalidation: Daily close above $4,550 (resistance reclaimed).
Macro events for the week
| Day | Time (Chile) | Event | Impact | Effect on Gold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday 31 | 09:30 | Chicago PMI | Medium | Regional indicator. Precursor to ISM. |
| Tuesday April 1 | 09:15 | ADP Employment Change | Medium | Precursor to NFP. High ADP = USD rises = Gold falls. |
| Tuesday April 1 | 11:00 | ISM Services PMI | Medium | 70% of US GDP. High ISM = hawkish Fed. |
| Thursday April 3 | 09:30 | Initial Jobless Claims | Medium | High claims = weakening economy = dovish = Gold rises. |
| Friday April 4 | 09:30 | NFP + Unemployment Rate | VERY HIGH | Event of the week. Strong NFP = USD rises = Gold falls. Weak NFP = Gold short squeeze. |
Friday’s NFP: the event that defines the week
Friday April 4’s Non-Farm Payrolls is THE most important macro data point of the week. It is the one that can resolve the contradiction between technical accumulation and bearish macro pressure.
If NFP is strong (>250K jobs): Fed maintains hawkish stance. DXY rises. Yields rise. Gold under pressure — could break $4,400 and target $4,319.
If NFP is weak (<150K jobs): Market prices in a rate cut. DXY falls. Yields drop. Gold launches — short squeeze toward $4,600-$4,700.
Recommendation: Reduce exposure Thursday evening. Do not hold large positions ahead of NFP. Wait for the data, wait for the spike, look for an entry after 10:00 Chile time.
Weekly scorecard
| Criterion | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Bias | Weak bullish | Technical accumulation but macro headwinds |
| Score | 3/10 | Macro/technical contradiction reduces confidence |
| Confidence | Low-Medium | Until NFP provides resolution |
| Minimum R:R | 1:2 | Require at least 1:2 due to elevated volatility |
| Max risk per trade | 0.5% | Reduced due to volatility (ATR $183) |
| Entries this week | Premium | Setups with entries, SL, TP and triggers available on premium plans |
| Recommended sessions | London KZ, NY KZ | Avoid Asia (wide spreads in this volatility) |
| Day to avoid | Monday | Post-weekend, gap possible. Wait for Tuesday. |
| Key day | Friday (NFP) | Do NOT trade pre-data. Wait for the reaction. |
General plan (no entries)
-
Weekly bias: Weak bullish as long as Gold holds above $4,400. If it loses $4,400 with a Daily close, bias shifts to neutral/bearish.
-
Primary buy zone: $4,400-$4,475 (Wyckoff LPS zone). This is the area where institutions should defend if the accumulation is real.
-
Primary resistance zone: $4,550-$4,600 (BSL + AR). If Gold breaks $4,600 with a Daily close, the Markup scenario is activated.
-
Risk management: Maximum 0.5% per trade. Volatility (ATR $183, 1.31x normal) demands reduced size. Do NOT overexpose.
-
Monday: Do NOT trade. Wait out the weekend gap. Observe Asia to see if there is continuation or a gap.
-
Tuesday-Thursday: Trade exclusively during London KZ (04:00-09:00 Chile time) and NY KZ (09:00-12:00 Chile time). Look for confirmations on 4H and 1H.
-
Friday (NFP): Do NOT trade before 09:30 Chile time. Wait for the data + reaction + sweep. The best entry is 30 minutes after the release.
Premium entries and setups
This weekly analysis is public and free. Setups with entry, SL, TP, trigger and confluences are available for subscribers of our premium plans:
- Tokyo Plan ($19/month): 1 daily setup (Asia session)
- London Plan ($29/month): 2 daily setups (Asia + London)
- New York Plan ($49/month): All setups + full discussion from the 8-analyst team
- Lifetime Plan: Permanent access to everything
Each setup includes: exact entry price, stop loss, 3 take profit levels, specific trigger (CHoCH, breakout, sweep), confirmation checklist, and observations from the analyst team.
What the team says
Our 8 analysts reviewed this report and 7 have observations. There is significant internal debate on this analysis — especially regarding the contradiction between technical accumulation and macro pressure (DXY + yields rising).
Key discussion points:
- Diego (Structure): Questions whether macro_bias can be bullish with DXY and yields rising
- Sofia (Risk): Points out that SLs need to be wider with an ATR of $183
- Mateo (Macro): Warns that Silver is the only thing supporting the bullish reading
- Andrea (Contrarian): A score of 3/10 contradicts a bullish bias — “it’s neutral in disguise”
The full debate — with observations from all 8 analysts — is available for premium subscribers.
You decide. We show the data and the disagreements. The final decision is always yours.
TradingView alerts
Set up the following alerts for the week of March 30 - April 4:
| Alert | Level | Type | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| LPS zone | $4,475 | Cross down | Watch the reaction. If it holds = LPS. If it breaks, wait for $4,400. |
| Psychological support | $4,400 | Cross down | If lost with a 1H close, bias shifts to neutral. Close longs. |
| Yearly Open | $4,319 | Cross down | Critical support. If lost = markdown continues. |
| BSL resistance | $4,550 | Cross up | First resistance test. Watch for rejection or continuation. |
| Daily CHoCH | $4,600 | Cross up | Wyckoff Markup confirmation. Bias shifts to strong bullish. |
| Total invalidation | $4,105 | Cross down | SC broken = failed accumulation. Exit everything. |
Recommended condition: use “Close” (not “Touch”) to avoid false alerts from wicks.
Summary in numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Weekly close | $4,494 |
| Weekly low | $4,105 (Wyckoff SC) |
| Weekly high | $4,603 (Wyckoff SOS) |
| Weekly range | $498 (extreme) |
| Weekly candle | Hammer (potential reversal) |
| Daily ATR | $183 (1.31x normal — ELEVATED) |
| Wyckoff | Accumulation Phase C-D (SOS) |
| Expected LPS | $4,400-$4,475 |
| Expected range next week | $4,400 - $4,600 |
| Bias | Weak bullish (score 3/10) |
| Resistance | $4,500 / $4,550 / $4,600 / $4,700 |
| Support | $4,475 / $4,400 / $4,319 / $4,200 / $4,105 |
| Key event | NFP Friday April 4 09:30 Chile |
| Recommended risk | 0.5% per trade |
| Entries | Premium only (view plans) |
| Team consensus | 1/8 agreement (intense debate) |
Conclusion
Gold closed the week at $4,494 after a volatile week that included a Selling Climax down to $4,105 and a +$389 bounce. The Wyckoff accumulation structure is underway: SC, AR, ST and SOS are confirmed. Now we need the Last Point of Support (LPS) — the final pullback before Markup.
But there is a contradiction we cannot ignore: DXY and yields are rising, which pressures Gold. The only supportive macro factor is Silver at +3.14% leading the metals recovery. The debate within our 8-analyst team reflects this uncertainty — 7 out of 8 have critical observations.
The week of March 30 - April 4 will be defined by two things:
- Whether Gold defends $4,400-$4,475 (confirms LPS = bullish)
- Friday’s NFP on April 4 (can resolve the macro contradiction)
Until then, caution. Reduced size. Wait for confirmations. Specific entries with all the details are available on our premium plans.
We will update with daily analysis throughout the week. Next analysis: Pre-Asia Monday March 30.
Glossary of terms
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Wyckoff Accumulation | Phase where institutions gradually buy. Includes: SC (capitulation), AR (bounce), ST (test), SOS (strength), LPS (last support). |
| Selling Climax (SC) | Point of maximum selling with extreme volume. Smart money buys retail capitulation. Marks the beginning of accumulation. |
| Sign of Strength (SOS) | Strong rally with volume confirming institutional demand. Exceeds the Automatic Rally. |
| Last Point of Support (LPS) | Last pullback before Markup (sustained rally). The best buy entry in the entire structure. |
| CHoCH (Change of Character) | First structural break in the opposite direction. Signals a potential trend change. |
| BOS (Break of Structure) | Break of a swing high/low confirming trend continuation. |
| Fair Value Gap (FVG) | Price imbalance across 3 candles. Price tends to return and fill these gaps. |
| Breaker Block | Invalidated Order Block. Former support now resistance (or vice versa). |
| BSL / SSL | Buy-Side Liquidity (short stops above) / Sell-Side Liquidity (long stops below). |
| Hammer (candle) | Candle with a small body and long lower wick. Signal of potential bullish reversal. |
| ATR | Average True Range. Measures volatility. High ATR = large moves = wider SLs. |
| NFP | Non-Farm Payrolls. US employment report (first Friday of the month). Moves Gold significantly. |
| DXY | Dollar Index. Inverse correlation with Gold: DXY rises -> Gold falls. |
Informes pre-sesión con setups de entrada
Antes de cada sesión recibes los setups probables con entry, SL y TP exactos, correlaciones con DXY, Oil y Yields, noticias macro del día, y mapa de liquidez. Llegas al mercado con un plan.
Disclaimer
Educational and informational content. This is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading involves risk of capital loss. Past results do not guarantee future results. Do your own research (DYOR).