XAU/USD SMC/ICT Analysis Today — Pre-Asia Setup (Apr 14)

Summary

Gold rose 1.1% and closed at $4,790. It was a day of moderate movement — the price moved $66 between its lowest point ($4,731) and highest ($4,797).

The trend is bullish (high confidence, score +3). Large institutions are buying on pullbacks. If the price holds above the key support level, it’s likely to rise in coming sessions.

Why? Bond yields are declining (good for gold, because gold competes with bonds); silver rose 3.0% (when silver rises strongly, gold tends to follow).

Technical analysis

Gold closed on April 14 at $4,790 (up 1.05%). Structure 4H: RANGE. Wyckoff Ranging. Day range: $66 ($4,731 - $4,797). Score: +3 BULLISH.

Session summary

Session with moderate volatility. Range of $66 ($4,731 - $4,797). The price closed near the key support level at $4,777 — decision zone.

Correlations

DXY declining (-0.19%) — dollar weakness favors Gold. Inverse correlation active. While DXY continues to weaken, Gold has tailwinds.

Silver +3.0% — positive. Precious metals move in the same direction.

Yields declining (-0.47%) — positive for Gold. Lower bond yields favor assets without yield like gold.

Market Maker

The market is in a range. Institutions accumulate in the lower part and distribute in the upper part.

Trade setups

2 active setups. Entries, stops and targets below — all public. No trigger, no trade.

A. 🟢 LONG — Pullback to support ⭐ Favorite

Entry: $4,745 · SL: $4,724 · TP1: $4,776 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.75-1%

Trigger: Bullish CHoCH 5m in zone $4,745±5

Confirmations (all required):

• Price drops to zone $4,745±5 (do not enter before)
• Bullish CHoCH in 5m: higher high breaks last swing high
• 5m confirmation candle: body >60% of range, close in upper third
• Displacement: impulse candle with body >70% and lower wick <20%
• Zone $4,745 was NOT broken with 5m close below

Invalid if:

• 5m close below $4,724 → setup dead
• 3 consecutive 5m candles below $4,745 without recovery → cancel
• If 2 hours pass without trigger → expired (await new analysis)

B. 🟢 LONG — Breakout of resistance

Entry: $4,797 · SL: $4,745 · TP1: $4,875 · R:R 1:1.5 · Risk: 0.5-0.75%

Trigger: Breakout + retest of $4,797

Confirmations (all required):

• 1H candle closes ABOVE $4,797 (no wicks — only real close)
• Retest: price returns to $4,797±5 and bounces (1–3 5m candles)
• On retest: 5m candle with lower wick touches $4,797 and close stays above
• Breakout volume > average (rupture candle must not be doji or inside bar)
• Price does NOT go back below $4,797 with 5m close after retest

Invalid if:

• 1H close back below $4,797 → false breakout, cancel
• 5m close below $4,745 → setup dead
• If no retest in 3 1H candles post-breakout → expired, do not chase

Scenarios

Scenario 1 — Healthy pullback and continuation (50%): Gold retraces to $4,777-$4,770 and bounces. Buyers defend support. Continuation toward $4,797.

Scenario 2 — Range consolidation (30%): Gold stays between $4,777-$4,797 without clear direction. Volume declines.

Scenario 3 — Support break (20%): Gold loses $4,777 with 1H close below. Return to $4,745. Cancel longs.

What to do

2 active setups. Favorite: LONG Pullback to support.

The key support of the day is the line of defense. If it holds, bullish continuation. If it breaks with 1H close, cancel longs.

Analysis generated by the Liquidity Hunters team. This analysis is educational and not financial advice. Trading involves risk of capital loss.